PharmaPlanTest
Regional drug-demand forecasting for Italy, built on AIFA and ISTAT open data
Open PharmaPlanTest →What it does
PharmaPlanTest is a working prototype that forecasts short-term regional demand for pharmaceutical distribution channels in Italy, using open data from AIFA (packages dispensed by region, category and distribution channel) and ISTAT (population and demographic trends).
- Category selection at two levels: AIFA/OsMed’s official therapeutic area naming, and the specific ATC classification underneath it
- Statistical forecast, up to 12 months ahead, automatically chosen per region/category by backtest between Holt-Winters and a SARIMAX model with calendar, seasonal and regional demographic regressors
- Historical analysis: year-over-year trends, category mix shifts, and distribution channel breakdown
- Built entirely on public, open datasets (AIFA, ISTAT), no proprietary or patient data involved
Why it matters
Demand planning in pharma distribution is still largely reactive. This tool explores whether a simple, transparent statistical model, built on data anyone can download, can give a useful directional signal for regional planning conversations.
Try it
The app is free to use and requires no login.
A prototype under active development, feedback welcome.